The Dunning-Kruger effect in sports betting

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a scientific concept. If you use understandable words, you can put it like this. Those who are highly qualified and have already achieved success tend to underestimate their contribution more often. They blame other people for their accomplishments, not themselves. They say that they were just lucky to succeed, and this is not their merit. Self-prejudice stimulates the development and improvement of skills. Such people can recognize the success of others and do not envy them, and also attribute the merits of others to hard work and talent.

According to the Dunning-Kruger effect, people of humble ability are the opposite. They blame everyone for their failures except themselves. They ascribe their small and dubious merits exclusively to themselves. However, they have no incentive to develop. They believe that they are already sufficiently developed. They perceive the success of others as a coincidence.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is called a metacognitive distortion, according to which, the lower a person’s qualifications, the more he or she has an overestimated idea of ​​their abilities. This scientific concept also applies to those who are engaged in sports betting.

How the Dunning-Kruger effect works in sports betting

The Dunning-Kruger effect can be plotted as a graph in which a beginner’s confidence peaks with minimal knowledge. Beginners in betting are often confident in their abilities, although they still do not know anything about the principles of bookmaker’s work and how to correctly place online betting on IPL and other sports.

When you start betting, you should always remember the Dunning-Kruger effect. If a person bets on sports for only a few days or weeks, and it already seems to him that he can outplay the bookmaker’s office and consistently make a profit, he has become a hostage of his inflated ego. It should be understood that even professional bettors who have been doing this for several years often lose and cannot turn sports betting into permanent earnings.

This period for a beginner in betting is characterized by constant replenishment of the deposit after a loss. It seems to him that after an unsuccessful bet, he will be able to win back and not only return the money spent, but also make a profit. It is important to always be able to stop on time after a loss. To do this, every month you need to allocate a certain amount of funds for betting, which is not a pity to say goodbye to. You need to forbid yourself to go beyond it. If you replenish the game bank after each loss, you can quickly fall ill with gambling addiction, which cannot be cured without the help of psychotherapists and psychiatrists.

How self-confidence falls after qualifications increase

With each new successful or unsuccessful bet, the bettor gains experience. Over time, his imaginary self-confidence falls, and he begins to ask himself such questions:

  • what he does better than the bookmaker;
  • bets are more often winning or losing;
  • is it possible to do a high-quality pre-match analysis;
  • how well it is to determine the likelihood of a particular outcome of a sporting event;
  • is he successful in finding value odds that give an advantage over other bettors?

Over time, the bettor begins to understand that his chances against the bookmaker are much less than they seemed at the beginning of the journey. Then he starts looking for all the new information about sports betting, studying various strategies, learning how to conduct event analytics.

You can visualize this stage using a graph in which self-confidence changes during the peak of dullness, a break in awareness, a gorge of despair, a path of enlightenment, and a plateau of strength.

Most of all, the novice bettor loses during the peak of dullness. If after it you fall into a psychological hole, which is accompanied by many unsuccessful bets, there is a great risk of quitting sports betting forever.

You can become successful and professional bettors if you make a quantum leap onto the path of enlightenment. To do this, you need to place bets slowly and deliberately, with a responsible approach to each, and correctly distribute the bankroll. To devote more time, not to the betting process itself, but to study various information, learn how to do pre-match analyzes with high quality.

According to the Dunning-Kruger effect, even the most experienced expert will never have the same self-confidence as the beginner at the beginning. This is because he no longer has illusions about easy money on bets, he sees all the tricks of the bookmakers, knows his strengths and weaknesses.